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Túl gyorsan melegszik a klíma? Kérdés, hogy az Atlanti-óceán tud-e alkalmazkodni
Az atlanti meridionális alábukó áramlás (AMOC) jövőjét illetően jelentős viták zajlanak. Egyesek egy közeli összeomlást vizionálnak, míg mások szerint még magasabb üvegházgázszintek és felmelegedés mellett is fennmarad egy gyengült AMOC, és annak összeomlása ebben a században valószínűtlen. Az AMOC összeomlását valószínűsítők a leállást eddig egy hőmérsékleti küszöbhöz kötötték, amelyet a legismertebb becslés durván 4 Celsius-fokos globális felmelegedés köré tesz. Az Utrechti Egyetem kutatóinak a Nature Climate Change folyóiratban 2026 augusztusában megjelent tanulmánya szerint azonban nem a melegedés mértéke, hanem az üteme a döntő. Klímamodelljükben az AMOC egy lassú CO₂-növekedés mellett plusz 5,5 °C-nál is stabil maradt, egy gyors növekedésnél viszont már plusz 2 °C körül elkezdett összeomlani. A légköri CO₂ koncentrációja az elmúlt évtizedben évente átlagosan mintegy 2,5 ppm-mel nőtt, ami a modellkísérlet gyors forgatókönyvének felel meg. Ez az AMOC stabilitása szempontjából nem vetít sok jót előre.
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